As the coronavirus continues its merciless strike on America, it’s plain to see that those most heavily affected by the virus are those in the 65+ age group, which is a crucial voting demographic. So the question, as morbid as it sounds, is how the possible death of hundreds of thousands of elderly Americans will affect the national presidential election come November?
Typically, those in the upper age range are more likely to vote Republican, and numbers from the last presidential election in 2016 prove that. This would lead many to believe that if a vast amount of our older citizens are killed by coronavirus in the coming months, it will be the Republican Party who sees the most damage.
And some academic researchers agree.
According to Politico, “Academic researchers writing in a little-noticed public administration journal – Administrative Theory & Praxis – conclude that when considering nothing other than the tens of thousands of deaths projected from the virus, demographic shifts alone could be enough to swing crucial states to Joe Biden this fall.”
The lead author of the study and a professor of management at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi said in an interview, “The pandemic is going to take a greater toll on the conservative electorate leading into the election – and that’s simply just a calculation of age. The virus is killing more older voters, and in many states, that’s the key to a GOP victory.”
According to the group’s research, it is “projected that even with shelter-in-place orders remaining in effect, about 11,000 more Republicans than Democrats who are 65 and older could die before the election in both Michigan and North Carolina. In Pennsylvania, should the state return to using only social distancing to fight infections, over 13,000 more Republican than Democratic voters in that age category could be lost.”
Now, at first glance, this certainly doesn’t appear to look good for those of us who sway to the right. However, there are some important things to point out.
First of all, Johnson admits that the numbers used in the study were based on very early projections that have turned out to be much higher than the actual numbers in those states so far. If we were to apply those same findings to more realistic numbers, based on the White House’s current worst-case model, the results are quite different.
It projects that about 240,000 people will die from the virus. So if 75% of those are 65 or older, spread throughout the US, it means only about 5,400 of those deaths would be in Michigan. And with a new Fox News poll in Michigan showing that Biden leads by eight points or so, it means the difference in the amount of Democrat vs. Republican deaths would only be about 550, which by the way is not enough to win the state by in most cases.
But secondly, the author is also going off of information from 2016 that said more older adults voted Republican than Democrat. However, that might not necessarily be the case anymore.
That new Fox News poll that shows Biden winning in Michigan says that a vast portion of those votes come from those 65 and older.
“Biden’s 8-point advantage over Trump, 49-41 percent, is slightly larger than the poll’s margin of sampling error. However, both candidates remain below 50 percent and 10 percent of voters are still up for grabs… The former vice president owes his lead to women (+20 points), non-whites (+63), and voters over age 65 (+19).”
This is just another sign that the most significant shift from 2016 to now is the way the 65+ group has turned to favor Biden.
According to a National Journal article and a recent poll by Morning Consult, “65-and-older voters prioritized defeating the coronavirus over healing the economy by nearly a 6-1 ratio. And over the past month, they’ve become the group most disenchanted with Trump’s handling of the crisis.”
And all this leads to poll results that show, “Among seniors 65 and older, Biden led Trump by 9 points, 52 to 43 percent. That’s a dramatic 16-point swing” from 2016.
So besides the fact that we already know academia elites are usually biased towards the left, these points are showing the Democrats any favors.
From the looks of things, this is just another attempt by the left to say good riddance if Trump supporters die off. Too bad, it doesn’t look that will actually happen.